Historical Overview of Sudan
Omar Al Bashir, the former president of Sudan, ruled Sudan from 1989 to 2019. Back in 2003, extreme human rights violations were observed in the Darfur region. There were some rebellion movements rising in the Darfur region because of less lack of government in that area and an unequal distribution of resources. These rebellion movements were mainly led by the non-Arab entities. At the orders of Omar Al Bashir, a huge genocide of the non-Arab population was conducted, resulting in more than 300000 deaths from 2003 to 2009. Omar Al Bashir used different paramilitary forces, namely the Janjaweed Militia group, to suppress the rising voices in the Darfur region.
Military Division in Sudan
Unlike the other military forces of the world, the Sudan army is composed of different segments, different proxy groups. These proxy groups were founded by Omar al-Bashir, who used them for brutal genocide in the Darfur region. There were possibilities that the Military Generals of Sudan wanted a smooth transition of power, but the issue was created by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Rapid Support Forces (RSF) was created by Omar al-Bashir to crush people in Darfur and also to protect him in difficult times. RSF contained the Janjaweed Militia group members, and after the brutal killing of non arab populations in the Darfur region, this became a permanent part of the Sudan army as a paramilitary group. The commander-in-chief of RSF was Hemedti.
What happened in Sudan in 2019?
In 2011, South Sudan separated from Sudan and became an independent state. The major oil reserves (about 80%) were under South Sudan’s control, which ultimately led to economic difficulties for Sudan. Oil exports were disrupted, and American sanctions also played a role in worsening Sudan’s economic situation. Omar Al Bashir, being the ruler of the country, decided to lift all the subsidies and put all the burden on the public in the form of heavy taxes and duties. An economic emergency was imposed in Sudan, and the inflation rate reached 70% by 2019.
This resulted in a revolution that stormed the president’s house. People of all ages gathered and demanded Omar Al Bashir’s resignation. The protesters reached the Military headquarters in Khartoum, demanding that the military help to end the brutal regime of Omar al-Bashir. Just after 5 days, the military overtook the government and arrested Omar al-Bashir. There were huge celebrations throughout the country, as there would be a new era of democracy in Sudan. The protesters were demanding a smooth transition of power from the military in the upcoming 3 years, but here lies the real twist.
The Failure of Dialogues Between the Military and the Protesters
The dialogue between the protesters and the military was not fruitful, as people were demanding an in-depth removal of Omar Al Bashir’s control from the government, and this would only be possible in 3 years. During this period, an interim government must be formed, leading to elections. The military generals were interested, but the RSF opened fire on protesters, leading to serious casualties. More than 100 were dead, and several dead bodies were thrown into the River Nile. As women were also part of this protest and several rape cases were also reported. The general public announced a civil disobedience movement, leading to a severe crisis in Sudan.
The head of the military, Lieutenant General Burhan, came on TV, admitted their mistake of opening fire on the general public, and announced serious immediate investigations. The military announced elections within the next 9 months, but the protesters were demanding a transition period of at least 3 years. So, the main issue remained the same, with a difference of opinion among the Sudanese military. Many generals were interested in moving with the public’s voice, but some forces, like Hemedti, were afraid of losing their control.
Combined Civil and Military Government in 2021
One of the worth mentioning things among these protests was that the young population of Sudan was seriously interested in the welfare of their country. This was the time when analysts were expecting a civil war in Sudan. The military general Burhan agreed to a civil and military government in Sudan containing both representatives of the military and civilians.
Sadly, this joint government was only for 2 years, and again in 2021, the military overtook by a coup. The government was overthrown by the collaboration of military head General Burhan and General Hemedti, who is the head of RSF. A council of generals was also formed in 2021, where General Burhan was in the lead, followed by General Hamedti.
The Power Struggle Between Two Generals
Again, both generals fought with each other and wanted to overtake one another. General Burhan wanted to merge RSF into the military. So, as a result, RSF would become a segment or unit of the Sudanese Army. On the other side, General Hemedti wanted to keep the separate identity of RSF. He was of the view that merging RSF into the Sudanese army should take 10 years. This was a power struggle, and both generals were also worried about the authority, like who would rule in case of merging process took place.
Fire was open from one side, and as a result, the escalation started. This resulted in multiple casualties. The collateral damage was also noticed as civilians were huge victims of this escalation. The reason for civilians’ deaths was the presence of the RSF on the city streets. No doubt, RSF had the power, but the airstrike ability was only in the hands of the Sudanese Military. So, as a result of these airstrikes, civilians were greatly affected, resulting in a large number of casualties.
This clearly shows how strong the RSF group became. They were just one lac in numbers and but due to massive control, they became so powerful that they challenged the military in Khartoum. Several daily necessities, like water, food, and medicines, were badly affected.
How RSF Became Powerful?
General Hemedti found his place after his role in the Darfur region and also in the Yemen war. Hemedti’s group, RSF, was just like the private military contractors of America in Afghanistan. These groups were to protect the American military and also conduct operations in parallel. So, this RSF group became powerful and was also used in the Yemen war by Saudi Arabia and the UAE against the Houthis. This raised the status of RSF, and ultimately, General Hemedti found such appreciation as opportunities to establish his businesses in Sudan.
Hemedti established gold mines and property businesses in Sudan. Jabal E Amir, an area in Darfur, was rich in gold. Hemedti established a company, Al Junaid, that became one of the largest gold export companies of Sudan.
The Russian Wagner group is also linked with RSF. Wagner Group is also a proxy group used by Russia in the Ukraine war and the African regions. This interaction is to make the gold trade deals between Russia and Sudan. Although the main dealings of Russia are through the Port of Sudan, which is led by General Burhan.
Russian Naval Base in Port Sudan
The Russian Government was interested in setting up a naval base in Port Sudan, and in this case, the agreement was also signed between the Russian government and General Burhan, where Burhan agreed to allow Russia to set up a naval base in Sudan. The Port of Sudan is on the Red Sea, which is a major segment of the Indian Ocean, where the major trade takes place. To the east of the Red Sea are Saudi Arabia while Egypt, and Sudan to the west. So, this was one of the best trade routes to be established if this deal were finalized. In the agreement, it was clearly mentioned that this agreement would be practically applicable after the establishment of a civil government in Sudan. According to the agreement, 4 nuclear-powered naval ships along with 300 troops would be placed on this Russian Naval base in Sudan. This would strengthen the Russian presence in this region. Such a Russian presence would definitely disturb America, and this also highlights that, maybe to some extent, America has been behind Sudan’s present situation. It means that if Sudan remains away from civilian government, it would definitely mean that Russia and Sudan cannot continue to establish a Naval Base.
Areas Division Between Two Generals
The southwestern part of Sudan, preferably the Darfur region, is under Hemedti’s control. Remember, the Darfur region is rich in gold reserves. The rest of the areas are under General Burhan’s control. This includes all the regions near the River Nile, the Port of Sudan, and Khartoum city. The recent controversy is in the region of El Fasher, which was not under Hemedti’s control. Only this part of southwestern Sudan was out of Hemedti’s control. So, to take control, Hemedti has already taken El Fasher hostage. As a result, Hemedti took control of this region successfully.
Libyan and UAE Support for RSF
The southwestern region of Sudan has a border crossing with Libya. Reportedly, this region is used for smuggling weapons to the RSF. This support of weapons to the RSF is definitely to fight against the central army of Sudan. This has raised the chances of another division in Sudan. There are opinions that the southwestern part of Sudan, which is presently under Hemedti’s control, will secede from central Sudan.
The UAE has also become the center of attention as it is being blamed for providing drones to the RSF. RSF has targeted the port of Sudan, which is the headquarters of Sudan’s army. Sudan has taken this case UAE support to RSF to the International Court of Justice, which has refused to take this case.
Dominance of Sudan’s Army in Khartoum
In 2023, Hemedti tried to overtake Khartoum, and as a result, huge damage was observed. After two years of battle, the Sudanese Army again took control of Khartoum. This has happened after huge fights with the RSF, destroying Khartoum’s infrastructure. Even Khartoum’s airport was destroyed. Now, after the control, the Sudanese Army has selected a prime minister to give it the shape of a democracy.
Invasion in the El Fasher Region
The RSF adopted brutal tactics to take control of the El Fasher region. They have cut the food supply lines of food to other regions of the Sudan. The areas linked with the central Sudan area are now disconnected. These issues are being seen as war crimes by the human rights organizations of the world. The area is being neglected by the mediating powers of the world. The people are being killed brutally.
The upcoming time clearly depicts a further division of Sudan. Please let us know in the comments section what is to be expected in Sudan.